Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: We have long argued tariffs are economic negatives and hurt the imposing country more than the target. In this case, American businesses and consumers shoulder the burden of the White House’s tariff policy. The New York Federal Reserve’s latest research purports to confirm this. “For each percentage point increase in the average tariff, the [New York Fed] team said that consumer goods prices were higher by roughly a quarter of a percent a year later. … Roughly two-thirds of the tariff-related price impact has directly come from the levies themselves, according to the New York Fed’s report. The remaining increase was driven by knock-on effects, such as U.S.-based companies that use imported parts and materials in their products. ‘Tariffs have a larger and more drawn-out impact on consumer prices than the direct effect alone would suggest,’ the study’s three authors, Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David Weinstein, wrote.” Now, take all this with a pinch of salt, considering they are also attempting to do the impossible: determine what prices would have been without tariffs. That is unknowable. Given money supply grew all along, outright deflation would have been unlikely. But the broader reasoning still stands. Yet as the past year and a half also show, President Donald Trump’s tariffs haven’t derailed international trade or economic growth. They are headwinds but not material enough to upend expansion or a bull market. Stocks don’t like tariffs, but they don’t need perfection to rise either. For more, see our latest commentary on trade, “A World Trade Check-In Starring Southeast Asia.”

MarketMinder’s View: Many analysts study China’s 13-day Golden Week holiday for clues about Chinese consumption. “Golden Week is viewed as a barometer of the Chinese economy with Beijing using it as an opportunity to showcase the world's second-largest economy's spending power. State media, for instance, reported a record-breaking 25.204 million passenger trips on China's railway network on October 1. However, early data indicated more moderate spending per traveler and broadly flat passenger traffic, according to Citigroup analysts. Traffic volume during the first four days of the holiday rose just 0.1% year over year, far below the 3.5% increase seen during this year's Labor Day vacation.” Interestingly, commentary about Chinese spending trends echoes American ones. One expert here notes Chinese consumers still spend—but selectively. Another argues weak spending reflects poor consumer confidence. The reasons behind the tepid spending veer into sociology (e.g., wealth gaps, changing consumer preferences), which matters less to global markets than the fact spending is happening. Overall, China’s domestic consumption may not be rollicking, but stocks have long known that. And spending is still chugging along—and that resilient demand benefits the global economy.

MarketMinder’s View: To address the titular point, some retirees are discovering their bills are running higher than anticipated. “In 2025, 18.4 percent of Americans ages 65 and older were employed, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Separately, the Federal Reserve found that 16 percent of people who considered themselves retired had worked for pay in the previous month. Among that group, 52 percent cited financial reasons in 2025, up from 45 percent in 2024. Those saying they needed money just to make ends meet rose from 25 percent to 30 percent.” The reasons vary, from unexpected medical bills or family assistance to inflation eating a chunk of purchasing power. The article offers a couple tips to help folks plan ahead, e.g., reviewing irregular expenses or trying out certain budgets while still working to see how the money holds up. From an investment perspective, we urge folks to be realistic about their long-term needs and do their best to plan accordingly, including considering the risk of unplanned expenses. We have found many investors require growth even after they retire, which means having an asset allocation (the mix of stocks, bonds, cash and other securities) designed to provide that growth. Making changes now—when time is on your side—can go a long way in helping you reach your goals. For some more personal finance tips, check out our end-of-year 2025 commentary, “Refresh Your Personal Finances for 2026.”