Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—November 20 – November 24

In the US, the flash November S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 49.4 and 50.8, respectively (readings below 50 indicate contraction). Preliminary October durable goods orders fell 5.4% m/m, below expectations. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell 0.8% m/m in October. With LEI now down for 19 months straight, some worry recession still looms. However, the US economy is growing, GDP has accelerated this year and stocks’ recovery from 2022’s bear market continues—a powerful reminder that LEI isn’t a stock market forecasting tool, and even as an economic forecasting tool, it has some shortcomings worth noting. For more, please see our 11/20/2023 commentary, “Putting the LEI’s 19-Month Slide Into Perspective.”

In the eurozone, the flash November S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs rose to 43.8 and 48.2, respectively. In the UK, the flash November S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs also rose to 46.7 and 50.5, respectively. UK and eurozone PMIs have signaled contraction in recent months but improved some in November’s initial readings.

In Japan, October consumer prices rose 3.3% y/y, slightly above expectations. October core-core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 4% y/y. The flash November Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 48.1 and 51.7, respectively.

The Week Ahead:

The US, eurozone, UK, Japan and China release final November PMIs. The US reports October new home sales and the second estimate of Q3 2023 GDP. The eurozone announces November consumer prices, October money supply (M3) and unemployment figures. The UK releases October money supply (M4). Japan reports preliminary October retail sales and industrial production, as well as October trade data and unemployment numbers.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.