Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—November 27 – December 1

In the US, the second estimate of Q3 2023 GDP came in at 5.2%, beating expectations. October new home sales were 679.0K, well below forecasts. The final November S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.4, meeting expectations (readings below 50 indicate contraction and above 50 indicate expansion). While many debate what PMIs and other economic data mean going forward, they are old news to stocks. Rather, we think stocks pre-priced the economic weakness and began looking ahead. For more, please see our 11/29/2023 commentary, “Do November PMIs Point to a Downturn?”

In the eurozone, the final November HCOB Global Manufacturing PMI was 44.2, slightly higher than expected. November core consumer prices fell to 3.6%, missing forecasts. The October unemployment rate was 6.5%, unchanged from the prior month. October money supply (M3) decreased 1.0% y/y, more than expected. In the UK, the final November CIPS Manufacturing PMI was 47.2, beating forecasts. October money supply (M4) rose 0.3%, exceeding forecasts.

In Japan, final November Jibun Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, remaining relatively unchanged. Preliminary October industrial production rose 1% m/m and 0.9% y/y. Preliminary October retail sales were -1.6% m/m, and 4.2% y/y, both missing forecasts. The October unemployment rate decreased slightly to 2.5%. October exports were 1.6% while imports were 12.5%, both unchanged. In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 50.7, rising slightly.

The Week Ahead:

The US, eurozone, UK, Japan and China release final November Services PMIs. The US reports November unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls. The eurozone announces October retail sales and final Q3 GDP. The UK releases November construction PMI. Japan reports final Q3 GDP and November bank loans. China reports November import and export data.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.