Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—September 11– September 15

In the US, August industrial production rose 0.4% m/m and 0.2% y/y, while August manufacturing production grew 0.1% m/m and fell 0.6% y/y. August retail sales rose 0.6% m/m, beating expectations. Consumer prices rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, while August core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) increased 0.3% m/m and 4.3% y/y.

In the eurozone, July industrial production fell 1.1% m/m and 2.2% y/y. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing their main refinancing rate to 4.5%. In the UK, July industrial production fell 0.7% m/m and rose 0.4% y/y. July manufacturing production fell 0.8% m/m and rose 3.0% y/y. July GDP decreased 0.5% m/m —below forecasts. Notably, we’ve seen a few instances of mild GDP declines during the last year that didn’t presage recession. For more, please see our 9/13/2023 commentary, “UK July GDP: A Recession or More Seesawing?”

In Japan, final July industrial production fell 1.8% m/m and 2.3% y/y. In China, August industrial production rose 0.5% m/m and 4.5% y/y. August money supply (M2) rose 10.6% y/y, more than expected, while loan growth increased 11.1% y/y. Retail sales rose 4.6% y/y in August—above forecasts.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone and Japan report flash September Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMIs). The UK and Japan announce August consumer prices. The UK releases August retail sales, while Japan releases August trade data. The Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan meet to set their respective monetary policies.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.