Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—September 25 – September 29

In the US, the third estimate of Q2 2023 GDP showed 2.1% annualized growth—unchanged from the second estimate. Preliminary August durable goods orders rose 0.2% m/m—higher than expected. August new home sales totaled 675,000, missing expectations for 700,000.

In the eurozone, consumer prices rose 4.3% y/y, less than forecast, and August money supply (M3) contracted 1.3% y/y, more than expected. In the UK, the second estimate of Q2 2023 GDP showed 0.2% q/q and 0.6% y/y growth. August money supply (M4) expanded 0.2% m/m but contracted 0.8% y/y. Q2 2023 imports rose 2.2% q/q, higher than anticipated, while exports fell 0.9% q/q, in line with expectations.

In Japan, preliminary August retail sales increased 0.1% m/m and 7.0% y/y. Preliminary August industrial production was flat m/m and fell 3.8% y/y. August imports and exports fell 17.7% y/y and 0.8% y/y, respectively. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.7% in August, slightly above consensus estimates. In China, the official September NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—came in at 50.2 and 51.7, respectively. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. The September Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMIs—which include smaller businesses—were 50.6 and 50.2, lower than expected.

The Week Ahead:
The US, UK, eurozone and Japan report final September manufacturing and services PMIs. The US reports September unemployment and nonfarm payrolls. The eurozone releases August retail sales figures.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.