Last Week In Markets: Jan 23 - Jan 27 2023

In the US, the first estimate of Q4 2022 GDP showed 2.9% annualized growth, surpassing estimates. While GDP’s expansion continued following Q3’s 3.2% reading, its components were mixed. For more, see our 1/27/2023 commentary, “America’s Economy Grew in Q4.” Preliminary December durable goods orders rose 5.6% m/m, higher than expected. The January Flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 46.8 and 46.6, respectively, both higher than expected but indicating contraction (readings below 50 indicate contraction).

In the eurozone, the January Flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 48.8 and 50.7, both higher than forecast. December money supply (M3) rose 4.1% y/y, below estimates. In the UK, the January Flash S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI was 46.7, above expectations, while the Services PMI was 48.0, below consensus forecasts. While the latest contractionary PMIs aren’t great, they suggest people are increasingly chewing over the same rehashed fears. The more old concerns hit PMIs and other data, the more people can see their fears manifesting, digest them and move on—helping end uncertainty. For more, please see our 1/24/2023 commentary, “Your First 2023 Economic Check-In.”

In Japan, the January Flash Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 48.9 and 52.4, respectively. Final December imports and exports increased 20.7% y/y and 11.5% y/y, respectively.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone, Japan and China release final January manufacturing and services PMIs. The UK posts December money supply (M4). The eurozone announces its first estimate of Q4 2022 GDP and January consumer price figures. The US, eurozone and Japan report unemployment data. Japan releases preliminary December industrial production and retail sales. The Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England meet to set their respective monetary policies.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.