Last Week In Markets: Sep 26 - Sep 30 2022

In the US, the third estimate of Q2 2022 GDP showed a 0.6% annualized decline—unchanged from the second estimate. Preliminary August durable goods orders fell 0.2% m/m—higher than expected. August new home sales totaled 685,000, outpacing expectations for 495,000.

In the eurozone, August money supply (M3) grew 6.1% y/y, higher than estimates. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.6% in August. In the UK, the second estimate of Q2 2022 GDP showed an increase of 0.2% q/q and 4.4% y/y—higher than the first estimate. August money supply (M4) contracted 0.2% m/m and expanded 3.8% y/y. Q2 2022 imports shrank 1.5% q/q while exports grew 3.6% q/q.

In Japan, the September Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 51.0 and 51.9, respectively (readings above 50 indicate expansion). Preliminary August retail sales increased 1.4% m/m and 4.1% y/y, above forecasts. Preliminary August industrial production grew 2.7% m/m and 5.1% y/y, beating expectations. August imports and exports rose 49.9% y/y and 22.0% y/y, respectively. The unemployment rate ticked down to 2.5% in August. In China, the official September NBS Manufacturing and Services PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—came in at 50.1 and 48.9, respectively. The September Caixin Manufacturing PMI—which includes smaller businesses—was 48.1, below expectations.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone and Japan report final September manufacturing and services PMIs. The US reports August trade data, September unemployment and September nonfarm payrolls. The eurozone releases August retail sales figures.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.