The Week Ahead: Jan. 13-19, 2013

Monday, 1/14:

November Italy industrial production

Eurozone December industrial production

Tuesday, 1/15:

Germany and Italy December CPI

UK December CPI and PPI

US December PPI and retail sales

US November business inventories

US January Empire State manufacturing survey

Independently, regional manufacturing surveys say little about overall US or global economy. Their results often tend to reflect short-term conditions driven by local industries rather than national trends. So whatever the result here, it’s worth taking with a grain of salt.

Japan November machine orders

Congress votes on a $51 billion Hurricane Sandy Aid package

Wednesday, 1/16:

US December CPI, industrial production

US January housing market index

Thursday, 1/17:

China Q4 GDP, December industrial production and retail sales

Following China’s leadership transition mid-November, Q3 GDP grew 7.4% y/y in line with expectations and just slightly below the 7.6% pace a quarter earlier. Following better-than-expected export trade growth in December, overall loan growth for the year clocked in at 8.2 trillion yuan (versus the unofficial target of 8 trillion), and December M2 growth clocked in at 13.8%, its likely growth hits the government’s full year target of 7.5%.

US December housing starts

US weekly jobless claims

Overall, the general trend of improvement in employment data continues. Recall, ADP private payrolls rose 215k in December, driven by medium and large business growth and easily beating expectations of 140k. The BLS employment situation report confirmed that result, showing payrolls rose 155k vs. expectations of 152k. Overall growth was led by private payrolls, while government payrolls saw losses due largely to cuts at the local level. The unemployment rate stayed the same at 7.8% due to 192k people reentering the workforce. That the labor market continues to chase economic growth shouldn’t be a surprise. Growth begets the need for hiring, and contractions beget the need to reduce headcount. That’s why, through history, recessions tend to start at or near cyclical unemployment lows. Low unemployment doesn’t prevent economic contractions—it’s a symptom of past economic strength. The reverse is true after recession—employment gains can take some time.

US weekly Fed balance sheet and money supply

US January Philadelphia Fed survey

Japan November tertiary index

New Zealand Q4 CPI

Friday, 1/18:

UK December retail sales

US January consumer sentiment