Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: Preliminary trade data from South Korea hint at some fallout from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, as exports fell -5.2% y/y in April’s first 20 days after shipments rose 5.5% y/y in March. On a trade partner basis, “Outbound shipments to the US and China were down 14.3% and 3.4%, respectively, while exports to the European Union and Taiwan were up 13.8% and 22%.” Now, it remains too early to declare trade routes permanently altered—perhaps businesses are re-routing goods through third countries to skirt tariffs in the short term. But considering South Korea’s prominent role in the global tech supply chain, these data illustrate some of the additional frictions and uncertainties tariffs add to global commerce—not a positive, though markets have likely already wrestled with a lot of this.

MarketMinder’s View: This is a decent takedown of some very headline-grabbing economic indicators, including haircut trends, lipstick consumption and men’s underwear sales developments. (It also mentions a few publicly traded companies along the way, so please note MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations. Their mentions here are coincident to a broader theme.) The analysis aptly notes gauges are far too narrow and niche for investors to glean anything about broader consumer demand, let alone the economy at large. While they may sound intuitive (e.g., if economic times are tough, gentlemen apparently won’t update their undergarments), these funky indicators don’t tell you if consumers are cutting back or ramping up elsewhere. Now, we think this article is a bit too reductive in arguing just about every dataset (especially government numbers) is useless for investors. We agree indicators like GDP aren’t all-telling—but no gauge exists that will tell you everything about the economy. Even the argument here that reports from retailers, banks and payroll companies are all you need to look at for a complete economic snapshot is incomplete, in our view—for instance, what will these sectors tell you about the health of a giant Tech company that provides web-based services and isn’t reliant on bank funding? Rather than shun most data, we think investors can use them to get a sense of how the economy fared recently and gauge how that aligns with broader sentiment—that can indicate where opportunities lie. For more on this, see our March commentary, “Niche Indicators Retake the Stage.”

MarketMinder’s View: Here is some news you hopefully don’t have to use, but for online scam victims, some tax relief offers a tiny silver lining. “In a memorandum released on March 14, the Internal Revenue Service’s Office of Chief Counsel described which types of scams might qualify for tax relief, including many investment schemes and some types of impersonation fraud. But it still excludes other widespread digital crimes, including kidnapping schemes, for example, and romance-related fraud that did not involve investing.” This piece outlines which situations do and don’t qualify, plus a walkthrough guide of how to report a scam. Crucially, it takes some steps to addressing one of the major indignities of financial fraud: having to pay income taxes on stolen IRA funds, which the IRS treated as a taxable withdrawal. This doesn’t fully solve the issue (as the article notes, it doesn’t extend to victims of Ponzi schemes), but a partial help is better than none at all. The article has the details of what does and doesn’t qualify, as well as this key guidance: “Regardless of your specific situation, it helps to document everything as soon as you realize you’ve been victimized. File a police report with local officials and federal ones, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Internet Crime Complaint Center. Take screenshots of any online platforms or apps that you used to communicate with the criminals, including online conversations, photos or anything related. Create a timeline or narrative of the events.” Tax relief won’t alleviate all the pain tied to fraud, but for those affected, knowing your options is helpful.