Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: Conventional wisdom says an aging population is an economic headwind, but this piece demonstrates the opposite can easily be true: As the cohort of older people grows, so does the economic incentive to develop products and services to make life better for them and their caregivers. Enter all the gadgets and gizmos this article discusses, which enable more seniors to live their advanced years at home, rather than in an assisted living or memory care facility, even if they don’t have round-the-clock family help. “Age tech can help bridge some important gaps, said Emily Nabors, the associate director of innovation at the National Council on Aging, a nonprofit advocacy group. Already, AARP reports that 25 percent of caregivers are remotely monitoring their loved ones with apps, videos or wearables, nearly double the percentage from five years ago. ... The products include smart walkers, glasses with lenses that provide real-time captions of conversations for those with hearing issues, and a concierge service that connects older people to drivers and deliveries, even if they don’t have a smartphone.” There are also services that detect falls, enable video calls on a television and even provide robotic pets (for companionship without the vet bills and upkeep). While this obviously doesn’t replace human interaction and caregiving, it can enable family members to do more even if they are working full time and can reduce the hours you might otherwise need professional in-home care. Now, there is obviously no clear-cut solution that fits everyone. People with mobility and severe memory issues will have different needs than some relatively spry. There are also privacy and ethics concerns to think through, as the article notes. But you still might find some beneficial things here if you are a senior or caregiver.

MarketMinder’s View: Per FactSet, China’s services sector overtook manufacturing as a percentage of GDP in 2015. While a notable development, this article shows why there is likely far more growth to go. “China’s services spending has outpaced goods consumption growth in recent years but still lags far behind developed economies. Per‑capita services consumption accounted for 46.1% of total consumption in 2025, well below the roughly 70% seen in the United States. China’s new five-year plan pledged to ‘significantly’ raise the share of household consumption in the economy over the next five years from around 40% at present, though it stopped short of setting a specific target.” You can also back your way into a growth target, considering the services sector growing from ¥80.89 trillion in 2025 to ¥100 trillion in 2030 amounts to 4.3% annualized nominal growth. That isn’t very aggressive. Note, too, that America’s consumption share is over two-thirds of its GDP (and also mostly services). To the degree China follows in the developed world’s footsteps, which from an economic perspective looks reasonable to us (see fellow, and further-along, East Asian development successes in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan), this suggests the world’s second-largest economy has lots of low-hanging fruit to pluck as it catches up with the West. Services not only offer a steadier growth path, less prone to industrial boom and bust (that China is familiar with), it also provides a ready avenue for Chinese economic planners to maintain social stability, always a priority there. That they are pursuing such a strategy isn’t exactly groundbreaking, but we think it helps highlight how perennial “hard landing” fears are likely overwrought.

MarketMinder’s View: Although markets have long since priced the backward-looking data presented here, we think Taiwan’s position as one of the world’s key technology hubs helps explain—and support—global stocks’ resilience. (As the article also mentions a certain contract chipmaker in passing, please keep in mind that MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations, focusing upon the broader theme only.) To wit: Taiwan’s “Export orders in March rose 65.9% from a year earlier to $91.12 billion, an all-time high level, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said on Tuesday. That was its biggest clip in more than 16 years and much better than analysts’ expectations for a gain of 41.0%, and marked its 14th straight monthly gain. ... For April, the ministry said it expected export orders to rise between 47.3% and 50.7% year on year.” Lest you (logically) think fast growth stems from last April’s Liberation Day tariff panic depressing orders then, we checked, and that isn’t the case: April 2025’s orders jumped 25.4% y/y, per FactSet. Therefore, ongoing double-digit order growth, led by technology products, across all regions globally, suggest firm business demand. Moreover, such robust capital expenditure rather undercuts recent high-profile forecasts (like from the IMF) warning the global economy may be on the verge of recession, as business investment is the chief swing factor during downturns. With that looking gangbusters based on orders sent to Taiwan—“a bellwether of global technology demand”—a global downturn doesn’t look nigh.