Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: Here we bring you the latest twist in the UK’s general election campaign, which suggests the Conservatives are in a bit of a struggle ahead of the July 4 vote. Before going further, we remind you MarketMinder favors no party nor any politician, assessing politics solely for their impact on markets and the economy. The latest news? After a poll emerged showing the current majority Conservative party polling third—behind not only Labour, but the upstart Reform UK party—the cracks that have long hampered the Tories re-emerged. This article documents those twists, as it appears some Tory candidates have already started to jockey for party leadership … three weeks before the vote! Now, this doesn’t appear to be a major vote of confidence, and it is looking likely Labour will win. But, as we have written, UK stocks have performed well (and poorly) under both parties. So whether you fear or cheer Labour’s possible victory—which still isn’t set in stone, mind you—there is little reason to see it as a gamechanger for markets.

MarketMinder’s View: Thursday brought the week’s second inflation-related data release, the volatile producer price index, or PPI. And it echoed the cooling found a day earlier in the consumer price reading: “The producer price index, a gauge of prices that producers get for their goods and services in the open market, declined 0.2% for the month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. That reversed a 0.5% increase in April and compared with the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.1% rise. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the PPI was unchanged, compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase. On an annual basis, the all-items PPI rose 2.2%.” This all alludes to the broad slowing trend in inflation since 2022’s peak continuing.

MarketMinder’s View: The beginning of this details the fact that victims of tax-return fraud have to go through a lengthy and painful process to get the refund they are due, which averages 22 months. To us, this is basically non-news. We mean, if you expected fast service from the IRS, we don’t know what to tell you. But the latter part—on how to prevent tax-return fraud—has some useful tips! “Both [IRS Taxpayer Advocate Service head Erin M.] Collins and [National Association of Tax Professionals Director of Tax Content tom] O’Saben recommended applying to the I.R.S. for an ‘identity protection pin,’ or IP pin, a six-digit number that blocks someone from filing a tax return using your Social Security number. (If the return doesn’t have the filer’s pin number on it, the I.R.S. won’t accept it.) Originally, the pins were reserved for victims of identity theft, but anyone can now request one as a preventive step. Once you have a number, the I.R.S. issues you a new one each year.” It goes on to counsel you to file early in the season, as this reduces the odds a fraudster files first. (If they file second, it would get rejected by the IRS.) You can also freeze your credit report, which we think is a wise counter-fraud measure. That won’t necessarily help with tax-filing fraud directly, but it can limit access to the information a fraudster needs to do so later.