Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: A decent portion of this piece focuses on sociological issues (e.g., income inequality), so please remember sociology isn’t a market driver. We highlight this discussion because it illustrates one of the big headline worries weighing on sentiment today and counterbalancing creeping AI enthusiasm. Namely, rising stocks (especially a couple big names going public) are supposedly enriching a handful folks, but most regular folks are purportedly falling behind as elevated energy prices eat into real (inflation-adjusted) wage growth—and that distress is showing up in recent tumbling sentiment surveys. Perhaps this is true. Losing purchasing power at the grocery store or gas pump can certainly be frustrating and may be a hardship for some families. While it is normal for real wages to drop when inflation first erupts since faster wage growth tends to follow inflation, helping folks eventually catch up, that is probably cold comfort now. Overall though, we see a big gap between sentiment and reality here. As the article notes, over half of US households own stocks and are also therefore benefiting from the ongoing bull market. And despite people’s feelings, household balance sheets are in good shape, as we showed here. But That inflation worries and generally dour sentiment (outside Tech) remain atop many commentators’ minds is counterintuitively bullish, as false fears are bull market fuel.

MarketMinder’s View: Some sobering statistics from across the pond: “UK banks reported almost 15,000 investment scams in 2025 as criminals use artificial intelligence to dupe people out of their money. About £221.5m was lost to scams in which people were persuaded to move their money to a fake investment or a fictitious fund, a rise of 40% from the year before, according to the report from UK Finance.” As we have seen stateside, fraudsters are increasingly using AI technology to imitate financial professionals, celebrities or even loved ones. From there, “criminals will promise high returns on investments that could range from gold, property and carbon credits to cryptocurrencies and wine.” AI advances now allow bad actors to cast a wide net, meaning potential victims must be hyperaware of the tactics. As sophisticated as the technology has gotten, though, many frauds feature common red flags. For example, flashy returns that sound too good to be true are a common one, as they are meant to appeal to greed. An inbound communication purportedly coming from a celebrity should always be a red flag. And if you can’t tell if someone is a loved one or a scammer, simply hang up or ignore their message and contact that person directly to verify. We find a calmer, cooler approach can go a long way in avoiding rash, emotion-driven decisions.

MarketMinder’s View: Today the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) upheld an appellate court’s 2025 decision to deny an appeal to President Donald Trump’s using Section 307 of 1974’s Trade Act to expand tariffs originally targeting $50 billion in Chinese imports. “The companies told the Supreme Court that Trump was trying to use Section 307 to circumvent Section 301’s more stringent procedural requirements. Section 307’s modification authority permits ‘minor or modest changes, not radical transformations,’ the importers argued.” But the Justices let the original decision stand, leaving in place levies affecting hundreds of billions worth of Chinese imports imposed during Trump’s first term. Now, we believe tariffs are economic negatives that add costs for businesses and consumers alike. But this story is basically a nonfactor for stocks, as tariff news lacks surprise power and stocks have long since seen the US economy grow despite higher tariffs. As we covered in April, neither the introduction of new tariffs nor deals removing them have sent markets sharply in either direction since stocks rebounded from last year’s Liberation Day tantrum. Surprise tends to move markets most, and stocks recognize tariffs’ bark far exceeded their bite. We aren’t ignoring trade developments, but absent a major, unexpected policy change, stocks have long since moved on. For more, see last week’s commentary, “Latest Tariff Threats Lack Terror for Markets.”