MarketMinder Daily Commentary

Providing succinct, entertaining and savvy thinking on global capital markets. Our goal is to provide discerning investors the most essential information and commentary to stay in tune with what's happening in the markets, while providing unique perspectives on essential financial issues. And just as important, Fisher Investments MarketMinder aims to help investors discern between useful information and potentially misleading hype.

Get a weekly roundup of our market insights.

Sign up for our weekly email newsletter.




Canada Eyes More Ways to Ship Oil to China as US Threatens Trade

By Robert Tuttle, Bloomberg, 2/5/2025

MarketMinder’s View: Please note, MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations, so any specific companies mentioned here are coincident to a broader theme we wish to highlight. When obstacles arise to hinder commerce, there is often ready incentive—and intense interest—to surmount them. As this article observes astutely, Canada “has long been stuck exporting its vast flows of oil solely to the US. And with President Donald Trump’s tariff threats highlighting the risk of that dependence, the success of the C$34 billion ($24 billion) Trans Mountain expansion [pipeline from Alberta’s landlocked oil sands to British Columbia’s coast] is stoking Canada’s desire to further decouple from its suddenly unpredictable neighbor—and play a larger role in global oil markets.” The article details both the opportunities and challenges Canadian producers face—most of which are long term in nature—but we share the read for a broader point. When trade blockages develop, that isn’t usually the end of the story—seemingly near-term negativity can spur longer-term opportunities investors who delve deeper can take advantage of.


Australia Household Spending Rises for Third Straight Month in Dec

By Staff, Reuters, 2/5/2025

MarketMinder’s View: Australian household expenditures contracted in the two quarters through the latest Q3 GDP report, but some more recent data point positively “The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ monthly household spending indicator (MHSI) showed a seasonally adjusted rise of 0.4% in December from November, when it rose by an upwardly revised 0.8%. ... Consumer spending should add around 0.2 percentage points to gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, a small but vital contribution to economic growth which had been flatlining under the burden of high mortgage rates and cost-of-living pressures. The MHSI series will replace the current retail sales report from the middle of this year and is much broader in scope covering 68% of household consumption, more than double the retail survey.” Economic activity in the Land Down Under appears to have ended 2024 on a stronger-than-appreciated note.


US Trade Gap Ballooned Ahead of Trump Term, Tariff Promises

By Mark Niquette, Bloomberg, 2/5/2025

MarketMinder’s View: The trade deficit (when imports top exports) may be useful as an accounting concept, but it is economically meaningless since this doesn’t reflect what imports represent in the real world: domestic demand. As we wrote recently, there is no reason why imports should “balance” exports (representing external demand)—divergences just show different levels of demand at home versus abroad. Here, as the article details, the surge in goods imports (causing the trade gap to balloon) shows businesses seeking to avoid potential disruption from the Trump administration’s well-publicized tariff threats. We don’t view this negatively—anticipation is mitigation, and companies acting preemptively is a generally sensible business decision. Sure, there may be some giveback if potential tariffs aren’t as severe as feared, but that more reflects the shifting around of demand—not inherent weakness.


The 401(k) Has Reached a Tipping Point in Its Takeover of American Retirement

By Anne Tergesen, The Wall Street Journal, 2/5/2025

MarketMinder’s View: According to the Labor Department, a majority of private-sector workers are now enrolled in their employers’ 401(k)—or similar—retirement plans. As the article relates, this is the result of decades-long efforts to encourage workplace savings among the industry and policymakers, as well as participants’ increased desire and willingness to take part. We think it is worth being aware of how administrators are planning to get the rest of the way, as “about 40% of the working population isn’t saving enough to maintain their lifestyle throughout retirement, according to Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research.” For example, covering the proverbial last mile: “Low-cost 401(k) providers are catering to small businesses, which have historically paid high fees.” Also, “because of a law that went into effect last year ... part-timers who have worked at least 500 hours in each of two consecutive years must be allowed to contribute to the plans. In 2027, the federal government is scheduled to provide matching contributions to lower-income workers saving in individual retirement accounts and 401(k)s, said Mark Iwry, who oversaw national retirement policy at the Treasury Department. That could spur millions more people to save.” We see a couple takeaways for investors. First, given retirement plans’ increasing availability, if you haven’t yet contributed to one, there has never been a better time. Second, the long-speculated “retirement crisis” was never inevitable. Policymakers, companies and individuals adjust, which can lead to reality turning out better than expected.


Canada Eyes More Ways to Ship Oil to China as US Threatens Trade

By Robert Tuttle, Bloomberg, 2/5/2025

MarketMinder’s View: Please note, MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations, so any specific companies mentioned here are coincident to a broader theme we wish to highlight. When obstacles arise to hinder commerce, there is often ready incentive—and intense interest—to surmount them. As this article observes astutely, Canada “has long been stuck exporting its vast flows of oil solely to the US. And with President Donald Trump’s tariff threats highlighting the risk of that dependence, the success of the C$34 billion ($24 billion) Trans Mountain expansion [pipeline from Alberta’s landlocked oil sands to British Columbia’s coast] is stoking Canada’s desire to further decouple from its suddenly unpredictable neighbor—and play a larger role in global oil markets.” The article details both the opportunities and challenges Canadian producers face—most of which are long term in nature—but we share the read for a broader point. When trade blockages develop, that isn’t usually the end of the story—seemingly near-term negativity can spur longer-term opportunities investors who delve deeper can take advantage of.


European Stocks Step Out From US Shadow in 2025, but for How Long?

By Danilo Masoni, Reuters, 2/5/2025

MarketMinder’s View: More investors are noticing Europe’s strong outperformance out of the gate this year, but as this article sums up, European sentiment remains overall skeptical: “structural challenges remain, [an investment strategist] said, adding: ‘Europe still faces issues, such as less energy independence, poor governance ... fragmented energy and capital markets, lower population growth, and lower tech investments’. European earnings growth this year is expected to accelerate significantly, to 7.9% from just 1% last year and following a 3.9% decline in 2023, LSEG IBES forecast show. In contrast, while U.S. earnings growth is expected to increase at a slower rate this year, it is still anticipated to be higher than Europe’s, at 14.1%, from over 10% last year.” That doesn’t even include Europe’s terror over possible Trump tariffs! Earnings’ growth rates are worth noting, but what matters most for markets is how those economic fundamentals comport with expectations. The widespread pessimism in Europe—more so than warranted, in our view—indicates a big bullish wall of worry that sets up lots of room for positive upside surprise.