Institutional Investing / Macro Minutes

Macro Minutes: US Elections & Equity Markets

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In this 5-minute Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Jarred Kriz explains how Fisher Investments thinks objectively about politics to analyze the potential impact on markets and portfolios.

Key Points

  • Markets do not favor Democrats or Republicans, however returns in election and inaugural years differ with election results.
  • Investors tend to celebrate Republican victories in election years, whereas equities struggle when a Democrat is elected. Those trends, however, usually reverse in inaugural years.
  • In analyzing corporate, personal income, and capital gains taxes over time, we find they don’t influence equity returns in any predictable way.

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