Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—April 28 - May 2

In the US, the first estimate of Q1 2025 GDP showed a -0.3% annualized contraction, below consensus forecasts. While there were clear signs of tariffs’ effects in Q1 GDP, there were also mitigating factors and underlying health in these data worth acknowledging. For example, spiking imports masked a healthy private sector—consumer spending, business investment and residential investment each grew fine. For more, please see our 5/1/2025 commentary, “Separating Wheat From Chaff in America’s Q1 GDP.” The final April S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 50.2, unchanged from March (readings above 50 indicate expansion). April nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000, exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2% in April, matching forecasts.

In the UK, March money supply (M4) increased 0.3% m/m, higher than forecast. The final April S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 45.4 and 48.9, respectively. In the eurozone, the first estimate of Q1 2025 GDP was 0.4 q/q and 1.2% y/y—above consensus forecasts. The April final HCOB Manufacturing PMI was 49.0. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.2% in March, slightly above consensus forecasts. April flash consumer inflation was 2.2% y/y, in-line with estimates. April flash core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) was 2.7% y/y. April money supply (M3) increased 3.6% y/y. 

In Japan, the April final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, higher than expected. March preliminary industrial production decreased 1.1% m/m and 0.3 y/y, both lower than forecasts. March retails sales fell 1.2% m/m but rose 3.1% y/y, lower than consensus estimates. The unemployment rate ticked up to 2.5% in March, slightly above consensus forecasts.

In China, he April NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—were 49.0 and 50.4, respectively, both lower than expected. The final April Caixin Manufacturing PMI—which includes smaller businesses—was 50.4, higher than expected.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone, and Japan release final April service PMIs. The eurozone releases retail sales. China releases money supply figures as well as import and export data. The US Federal Reserve and Bank of England meet to set their respective monetary policies.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.