Market Analysis

The Week Ahead: Dec. 2-8, 2012

Global manufacturing data, US employment reports, central bank monetary policy announcements and continuing congressional fiscal cliff talks are all scheduled for the first week of December.

Slovenia holds a second round (run-off) presidential election

The country’s constitution requires presidents to be elected with a simple majority of the vote. If no candidate receives more than half the votes in a preliminary round, the top two candidates face off in a second round. Incumbent Danilo Türk (Independent) trailed challenger Borut Pahor (Social Democrats) in the preliminary round and in polling ahead of the Sunday vote.

EU finance ministers meet to debate whether the ECB should supervise all eurozone banks

This is a seemingly contentious issue that’s likely far from being resolved.

November manufacturing PMI prints

France, Germany, the eurozone, the UK and US (Markit and ISM) release manufacturing data. Recent reports, despite some weakness, continue to reflect resilience. The flash estimate of eurozone PMI showed a manufacturing sector contracting at a slower pace than most expected. Following an unexpected acceleration in October, US manufacturing reports are expected to remain steady.

November Japan PMI composite

October US construction spending

Turkey Q3 CPI

Brazil Q3 trade balance

Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy announcement

The RBA left its official interest rate steady at 3.25% in early November, citing a mix of improved global conditions, higher inflation and domestic economic uncertainty. Expectations are for a 25 basis point cut.

November US motor vehicle sales

October eurozone PPI

Australia Q3 GDP

China November PMI composite

Brazil October industrial production

Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement

France and eurozone November PMI composite

UK November CIPS/PMI services index

South Korea Q3 GDP

Ireland announces its 2013 budget—expected to include 4.5 billion in spending cuts and tax increases

Eurozone September retail sales

US Q3 revised productivity and costs

October US factory orders

November US ISM non-manufacturing index

Eurozone preliminary Q3 GDP

The preliminary estimate follows a flash reading suggesting the eurozone—by one common definition—entered recession (falling -0.1% q/q and -0.2% q/q in Q1). Although the preliminary estimate is based on more complete data, overall eurozone weakness is unlikely to change materially. And that outcome shouldn’t surprise most folks, given the eurozone’s exhibited economic weakness for years now.

BOE and ECB monetary policy announcements

US weekly jobless claims

South American leaders gather for the Mercosur trade summit in Brasilia, Brazil

Despite some protectionist sentiment creeping up in certain parts of the world, overall, barriers to free trade continue to fall globally. South American leaders may be the poster children for this bifurcated sentiment regarding trade, so it will be interesting to see what, if anything, comes of the meeting from a policy standpoint.

November US Monster employment index and employment situation report

UK October industrial production

Germany October industrial production and manufacturer’s orders

December University of Michigan consumer sentiment report

Confidence and other sentiment-based readings are backward-looking and presage little about the future direction of the economy or markets.

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*The content contained in this article represents only the opinions and viewpoints of the Fisher Investments editorial staff.