Personal Wealth Management / Market Analysis
The Week Ahead: Nov. 11-17, 2012
Fiscal cliff rhetoric and Japanese and eurozone economic data are likely headline grabbers in the week ahead.
Sunday, 11/11:
Japanese Q3 preliminary GDP and PPI
Given ongoing political infighting and a lack of willingness to enact necessary reforms to increase competitiveness, we expect Japanese economic figures to reflect continued malaise.
Presidential elections in Slovenia
Incumbent Danilo Türk seeks re-election for a second term as an independent candidate, although he is supported by six political parties. He is challenged by Borut Pahor (Social Democrats) and Milan Zver (Slovenian Democratic Party and Nova Slovenija).
Monday, 11/12:
Veterans Day in the United States
US stock markets are open, but banks are closed.
Russian Q3 GDP
Indian October CPI
Inflation on the subcontinent remains uncomfortably high—another reason the Reserve Bank of India has one of the highest interest rates of major world economies, despite India’s slowing growth.
September Mexican industrial production
Mexico continues to benefit from its shared, free-trade border with the United States. And thanks to recent productivity gains, Mexican-produced goods are playing an increasingly important role in global manufacturing. For more, see MarketMinder editorial staff writer, Elisabeth Dellinger’s recent post on Equities.com, “Is Mexico a New Emerging Market?”
Eurozone finance ministers meet in Brussels
On the heels of a Greek parliamentary vote approving strict new austerity measures, eurozone finance ministers likely focus much of their time on the particulars of what’s required to release Greece’s next bailout tranche. It’s likely they’ll require Greece pass its full 2013 budget and receive a positive report from troika debt inspectors. Of course, some euro countries can only release aid after their own parliaments have approved as well. Meaning, Greece still has a long road ahead—news to no one.
Tuesday, 11/13:
US Congress returns to session
Expect “fiscal cliff” talks to reach fever pitch. As we’ve said, neither party wants to fall off the fiscal cliff, and at this point both sides (and President Obama) have stated “automatic” spending cuts and tax hikes must be forestalled. In our view the fiscal cliff likely gets leveled at the 11th hour. For more, see our 11/08/2012 cover story, “Obama, Take Two.”
October Italian CPI
October UK CPI and PPI
Brazilian retail sales
Wednesday, 11/14:
October French CPI
September Eurozone industrial production
BOE Q4 inflation report
October US PPI, retail sales and September business inventories
October UK unemployment
Thursday, 11/15:
French, German, Italian and eurozone flash GDP
Eurozone GDP is expected to decline -0.1% q/q—meeting a broadly accepted definition of recession (two consecutive quarters of declining GDP). However, given all that’s ailed the eurozone the last three years, the slight dip into contractionary territory shouldn’t be too surprising.
UK retail sales
Eurozone HICP (Inflation)
US CPI
US Empire State manufacturing survey and US Philly Fed survey
These Fed surveys are highly localized and often tend to reflect short-term conditions driven by local industries rather than national trends.
Friday, 11/16:
Italian and EMU trade balances
US industrial production
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*The content contained in this article represents only the opinions and viewpoints of the Fisher Investments editorial staff.
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