Market Analysis

The Week Ahead: Nov. 11-17, 2012

Fiscal cliff rhetoric and Japanese and eurozone economic data are likely headline grabbers in the week ahead.

Sunday, 11/11:

Japanese Q3 preliminary GDP and PPI

Given ongoing political infighting and a lack of willingness to enact necessary reforms to increase competitiveness, we expect Japanese economic figures to reflect continued malaise.

Presidential elections in Slovenia

Incumbent Danilo Türk seeks re-election for a second term as an independent candidate, although he is supported by six political parties. He is challenged by Borut Pahor (Social Democrats) and Milan Zver (Slovenian Democratic Party and Nova Slovenija).

Monday, 11/12:

Veterans Day in the United States

US stock markets are open, but banks are closed.

Russian Q3 GDP

Indian October CPI

Inflation on the subcontinent remains uncomfortably high—another reason the Reserve Bank of India has one of the highest interest rates of major world economies, despite India’s slowing growth.

September Mexican industrial production

Mexico continues to benefit from its shared, free-trade border with the United States. And thanks to recent productivity gains, Mexican-produced goods are playing an increasingly important role in global manufacturing. For more, see MarketMinder editorial staff writer, Elisabeth Dellinger’s recent post on, “Is Mexico a New Emerging Market?”

Eurozone finance ministers meet in Brussels

On the heels of a Greek parliamentary vote approving strict new austerity measures, eurozone finance ministers likely focus much of their time on the particulars of what’s required to release Greece’s next bailout tranche. It’s likely they’ll require Greece pass its full 2013 budget and receive a positive report from troika debt inspectors. Of course, some euro countries can only release aid after their own parliaments have approved as well. Meaning, Greece still has a long road ahead—news to no one.

Tuesday, 11/13:

US Congress returns to session

Expect “fiscal cliff” talks to reach fever pitch. As we’ve said, neither party wants to fall off the fiscal cliff, and at this point both sides (and President Obama) have stated “automatic” spending cuts and tax hikes must be forestalled. In our view the fiscal cliff likely gets leveled at the 11th hour. For more, see our 11/08/2012 cover story, “Obama, Take Two.”

October Italian CPI

October UK CPI and PPI

Brazilian retail sales

Wednesday, 11/14:

October French CPI

September Eurozone industrial production

BOE Q4 inflation report

October US PPI, retail sales and September business inventories

October UK unemployment

Thursday, 11/15:

French, German, Italian and eurozone flash GDP

Eurozone GDP is expected to decline -0.1% q/q—meeting a broadly accepted definition of recession (two consecutive quarters of declining GDP). However, given all that’s ailed the eurozone the last three years, the slight dip into contractionary territory shouldn’t be too surprising.

UK retail sales

Eurozone HICP (Inflation)


US Empire State manufacturing survey and US Philly Fed survey

These Fed surveys are highly localized and often tend to reflect short-term conditions driven by local industries rather than national trends.

Friday, 11/16:

Italian and EMU trade balances

US industrial production

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*The content contained in this article represents only the opinions and viewpoints of the Fisher Investments editorial staff.