Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US, eurozone, UK, Japanese and Chinese Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs,) US trade data and eurozone retail sales.
In the US, the final March S&P Global (formerly Markit) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised lower to 58.0 (readings over 50 indicate expansion). February exports and imports rose 1.8% m/m and 1.3% m/m. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 2 fell to 166,000 from 171,000 the previous week. Following last Friday’s March jobs report, many argue the figures confirm a full recovery is underway, but some pundits still worry rising wages in a tight job market may keep inflation high. We think it is important to keep in mind that unemployment and inflation aren’t linked despite myriad worries about today’s elevated prices. For more, please see our 04/06/2022 commentary, “Unemployment Wont Push Prices Higher.”
In the eurozone, the final March S&P Global Services PMI was revised higher to 55.6. February retail sales rose 0.3% m/m and 5.0% y/y, both less than expected. In the UK, the final March S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI was revised upward to 62.6, exceeding consensus forecasts and the second strongest rate of expansion since 1997.
In Japan, the final March Jibun Bank Services PMI was revised up to 49.4—higher than expected. In China, the final March Markit/Caixin Services PMI was 42.0, lower than estimates.
The Week Ahead:
The US releases March retail sales data. The US, UK and eurozone report February industrial and manufacturing production. The US, UK and China release March inflation figures. China releases March trade data. Japan reports February retail sales, March bank lending and preliminary March money supply (M2). The European Central Bank meets to set monetary policy. On Sunday, April 10, France holds the first round vote in a presidential election.
Tip of the Week:
Fisher Investments’ offices and US markets will be closed on Friday, April 15 in observance of Good Friday.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.