Weekly Wrap-Up

Last Week In Markets: June 27 - July 01 2022

Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US, UK, eurozone and Japan Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs), US and UK Q1 2022 GDP estimates, and Japanese retail sales.

In the US, the June Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised up to 52.7 from the preliminary reading of 52.4—still lower than May’s reading. Though monthly PMIs have generally ticked down in June, they remain in expansionary territory—higher than 50 in most parts of the world. The third estimate of Q1 2022 GDP showed a 1.6% annualized decline—revised slightly lower from the second estimate of -1.5% annualized. Preliminary May durable goods orders rose 0.7% m/m, above expectations. For more on recent US economic data releases, please see our 6/28/2022 commentary, “A Look Around the US Economy.”

In the eurozone, the June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 52.1. June preliminary core consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose 3.7% y/y, less than expected and easing slightly from May’s 3.8% y/y increase. May money supply (M3) grew 5.6% y/y. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.6% in June, beating expectations for 6.8%. In the UK, the June S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 52.8. The second estimate of Q1 2022 GDP showed a 0.8% q/q and 8.7% y/y increase. May money supply (M4) expanded 0.5% m/m and 5.1% y/y. Q1 2022 imports grew 10.4% q/q while exports shrank 4.4% q/q—both better than expectations.

In Japan, the June Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI was unchanged from the preliminary reading at 52.7. Preliminary May retail sales increased 0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y, above forecasts. Preliminary May industrial production declined 7.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y, lower than estimates. May imports and exports rose 48.9% y/y and 15.8% y/y, respectively. The unemployment rate ticked up to 2.6% in May. In China, the official June NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—came in at 50.2 and 54.7, respectively. The June Caixin Manufacturing PMI—which includes smaller businesses—was 51.7, above forecasts.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.