Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US, eurozone, UK, Japan and China Manufacturing PMI readings, US and eurozone US and unemployment data and US and UK Q4 2021 GDP estimates.
In the US, the third estimate of Q4 2021 GDP growth was adjusted slightly lower to 6.9% annualized. The March S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised upward to 58.8 (readings over 50 indicate expansion). Nonfarm payrolls increased 431,000 in March, lower than the consensus forecast. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.6%—beating market expectations.
In the eurozone, the March S&P Global eurozone Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 56.5. The February unemployment rate fell to 6.8%, slightly higher than forecasts. In the UK, the second estimate of Q4 2021 GDP growth came in at 6.6% y/y and 1.3% q/q. The March S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI was revised downward to 55.2. February money supply (M4) expanded 6.0% y/y and 1.0% m/m. Q4 2021 imports and exports grew 0.3% q/q and 6.9% q/q, respectively—both beating expectations.
In Japan, the March Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 54.1. Preliminary February industrial production rose 0.2% y/y and 0.1% m/m. February imports grew 34.1% y/y, while exports grew 19.1% y/y. February retail sales fell 0.8% y/y and 0.8 m/m. The February unemployment rate declined slightly to 2.7%, beating expectations. In China, the official March NBS manufacturing and services PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—came in below expectations at 49.5 and 46.7, respectively. The March Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI—which includes smaller businesses—was 48.1, lower than the consensus forecast.
The Week Ahead:
The US, UK, eurozone, Japan and China report final March services PMIs. The US releases February trade data. The eurozone releases February retail sales numbers. China reports March money supply (M2) growth.