Last Week In Markets: Oct 17 - Oct 21 2022

In the US, September industrial and manufacturing production both rose 0.4% m/m, exceeding expectations. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.4% m/m in September.

In the eurozone, September consumer prices rose 9.9% y/y—slightly less than estimates. September core consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose 4.8% y/y, the highest rate on record. In the UK, September consumer prices rose 10.1% y/y—higher than expected. September core consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose 6.5% y/y, exceeding estimates. September retail sales declined 1.4% m/m and 6.9% y/y, worse than anticipated. Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned on Thursday, kicking off a new leadership contest for the Conservative Party. While many speculate about who may replace her, we think stocks will largely look past this and focus on the likelihood of significant legislation being passed—something that seems unlikely. For more, please see our 10/20/2022 commentary, “What Follows Truss’s 44 Days?”

In Japan, September core-core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 1.8% y/y. August industrial production increased 3.4% m/m and 5.8% y/y, higher than expected. August retail sales rose 1.3% m/m and 4.1% y/y. Preliminary September exports rose 28.9% y/y, while imports rose 45.9% y/y, both higher than forecasts. China delayed releasing certain economic figures, including Q3 2022 GDP, amid the Communist Party Congress.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, and eurozone report flash October manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). The US reports its first estimate of Q3 2022 GDP and preliminary September durable goods orders. The eurozone releases September money supply data (M3). Japan reports its flash October manufacturing PMI and final September trade and unemployment data. The European Central Bank meets to set monetary policy.

Source for all data cited is FactSet.  This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.