Market Analysis

The Week Ahead: Feb. 3-9, 2013

Next week brings the first January reports, including inflation data, manufacturing, trade balances and retail sales. Policy decisions from the central banks in Australia, the eurozone and the UK are also expected, although few expect material changes from currently accommodative policies.

Monday, 2/4:

Eurozone December PPI

US December factory orders

Japan January PMI composite

Australia December trade balance

China January HSBC services and composite PMI

Reserve Bank of Australia quarterly announcement

Tuesday, 2/5:

Final January France, Germany and Eurozone services and composite PMI

Last week’s manufacturing PMI reports showed continuing contraction (albeit at a slower pace in most countries), though the eurozone-wide gauge improved to its best level in 10-months. The composite PMI (which incorporates the manufacturing and services indexes) likely reflects that improvement.

UK January CIPS / PMI services Index

Italy January preliminary CPI

Eurozone December retail sales

US January ISM non-manufacturing index

Australia December retail sales

Wednesday, 2/6:

Germany December manufacturing orders

Canada January Ivey PMI

The Ivey purchasing managers index measures month-to-month changes by purchasing managers across sectors and regions in Canada, so the results can often be volatile.

Japan December machine orders

Machine orders rose more than expected in November, suggesting companies were optimistic about the Japanese and global economic outlooks. Following the BOJs recent quantitative easing announcements, it’s possible companies continue to be optimistic about growth.

Australia January labor force survey

Mexico February consumer confidence

Spain: Employees of three Spanish banks are expected to strike against layoffs at the nationalized lenders

Spain continues to work through myriad issues, including digesting its bank bailouts, boosting economic competitiveness and enacting austerity measures. However, recently successful bond auctions and European officials’ possible easing of austerity terms may buy Spain more much-needed time to continue working through these issues.

Thursday, 2/7:

US January chain store sales and Q4 preliminary productivity and costs

Market-watchers are likely to pay close attention to chain store sales, which many expect to take a hit following the expiration of various tax holidays. However, overall, consumer spending is a lot more resilient than most folks like to think. Productivity and cost data will be an important indicator for inflation and future employment expectations. As productivity gains slow, businesses will likely need to continue adding headcount to keep pace with demand.

China January trade balance, CPI and PPI

France December trade balance

UK December industrial production and trade balance

Germany December industrial production

ECB and BOE announcements

With the UK contracting again in Q4 and large parts of Europe still slumping, it wouldn’t be surprising to us if both kept their accommodative stances. Following the ECB’s January decision, they noted lower CDS and bond yields, rising equity markets, lower volatility, improving Target2 imbalances and increasing periphery deposits as reasons to leave rates on hold. Most of these measures have continued to improve since then.

US weekly money supply

EU Meeting in Brussels

Leaders of the 27 EU nations meet to resume talks from November on the 2014-2020 budget and trade pacts with Canada, Japan and the US. Recall, the EU’s $1 trillion budget is facing heavy debate, most vocally from the UK, which is seeking cuts, while other nations are seeking budget increases.

Friday, 2/8:

Germany December trade balance

Italy December industrial production

Canada housing starts

US December trade balance

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*The content contained in this article represents only the opinions and viewpoints of the Fisher Investments editorial staff.