Market Analysis

The Week Ahead: Sept. 30 - Oct. 6, 2012

A brief look at economic data and geopolitical events in the week ahead and MarketMinder’s view.

EU PMI Manufacturing Index Released

The flash September reading showed some stabilization in German economic data but continuing deterioration in France. Monday’s report will include data from other countries, but German and French data still likely have the biggest impact. That said, we expect it to continue reflecting weakness.

EMU Unemployment Rate Reported

As noted above and with other eurozone economic releases, it’s likely this report continues to reflect ongoing weakness—but that shouldn’t be much of a surprise to anyone who’s paid attention to Europe the last three years.

September US PMI and ISM Manufacturing Indexes

All economic data, especially flash releases, are often subject to substantial revision later. However, these reports should give some investor insight into the state of US manufacturing in September.

August US Construction Spending

Year over year, construction spending continues to show vast improvement. However, this release lags by two months and says more about where the economy has been than where it’s heading.

Georgia Holds Parliamentary Elections

Parliamentary elections in this former Soviet state are particularly interesting, given a constitutional change agreed to last year transfers significant power from the President to the Prime Minister—who will be appointed after the 2013 presidential election. That said, whatever the outcome, the impact on capital markets is likely minimal.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy announcement

The RBA kicks off a busy week of central bank announcements. Later in the week, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) are also scheduled to release policy statements. Given extremely accommodative policies and relatively tame inflation around the world, it’s likely the RBA and other central banks maintain the status quo.

September US Motor Vehicle Sales

EMU PMI Services Index

This report gives investors insight into the eurozone services sector for September. As we’ve said before, on balance, it’s unlikely we see material improvements in eurozone economic data anytime soon. That said, eurozone weakness likely doesn’t stymie ongoing global growth.

September German PMI Services Index

September ADP Employment Report

This private payrolls report is often seen as a precursor to the much-watched monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics employment situation report released later in the week.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Services data have shown resilience the last few months—suggesting the US economy is likely stronger than many people think.

US Presidential Debates Kick Off

Wednesday’s debate, the first of three, focuses on several preselected domestic policy topics.

BOJ Policy Announcement

BOE Policy Announcement

ECB Policy Announcement

US September Chain Store Sales

This figure gives some insight into retail strength and consumer spending. However, the data are typically stated as a change from the same month, a year ago—possibly distorting real trends.

Weekly US Jobless Claims

August Factory Orders

FOMC Meeting Minutes from 9/13 QE3 announcement released

Expect media outlets to pour over the minute details of these meeting minutes. However, what’s more important than what’s said at these meetings (and by whom) is what the Fed actually does. And that’s already been announced and its impact priced into markets.

Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply

EMU Q2 GDP revision

August German Manufacturers’ Orders

September Employment Situation Report

Ahead of November’s election, expect much political rhetoric from both sides about this report. But, as we’ve often written, the forward-looking economic implications of unemployment—be it very elevated or near cycle lows—are few. For more, see our 08/06/2012 cover story, “Donkeys, Elephants and Unemployment.”

August US Consumer Credit

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*The content contained in this article represents only the opinions and viewpoints of the Fisher Investments editorial staff.